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"Tuvalu
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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL CHANGE
IN TUVALU:
by : Mataio Tekinene and Avanoa Paelate
1. Introduction.
Tuvalu is a small state with a limited and area of low
elevation, is likely to be highly vulnerable to the effects of possible future
climate and sea-level change. The areas of greatest vulnerability are likely to
be the coastal and marine systems, which are vital to livelihoods in Tuvalu. A
no-regrets approach to adaptation would provide effective responses to some of
the effects of climate change and sea-level change. However, the more severe
effects (such as inundation and flooding) would require very high cost
adaptations, not only economically but also in terms of environmental cost and
the impact on Tuvaluan’s culture. It is not beyond the realm of possibility
that the highly undesirable, last resort, adaptation measure or migration would
become necessary. Given its vulnerability to the possibility of global changes
that are not of its making, and its limited direct mitigation capability, it is
imperative that a national policy framework for Tuvalu is developed, which will
facilitate the implementation of the most effective and suitable adaptation
options in Tuvalu.
The key finding from the assessment are:
The growing population of Tuvalu is already
placing pressure on sensitive environments, the effects of which may be
exacerbated by the effects of climate and sea level changes and extremes
events;
There is lack of detailed regional information on
climate and sea-level change scenarios, including changes in variability and
extremes, for Tuvalu. However, it is possible to ask" what if"
questions about environmental sensitivities based on current knowledge;
Given the low elevation and limited land area of
Tuvalu, the most direct and severe effect of climate and ea level change
will be an increasing risk of coastal erosion, flooding and inundation. The
magnitude of any such effects will be determined by the nature and magnitude
of the effects of climate and sea-level changes on coral reef ecosystems;
Other direct effects of climate and sea-level
change will include: a possible reduction in subsistence of dengue fever
risk; and decreased human comfort of Palagi houses;
Continuing environmental and socio-economic
changes will , in combination with climate and sea-level change, only serve
to increase the magnitude of effects;
The overall impacts of climate and sea-level
change will likely be cumulative and determined by the interaction and
synergism between the effects and on-going climate and sea-level changes;
Implementation of adaptation measures and
strategies in Tuvalu should take a no-regrets approach. The least cost
adaptation options are consistent with this approach , however the highest
cost options are those that would not be identified as no-regrets strategies
and relate to the most severe effects, and greatest vulnerabilities. A last
resort adaptation would be migration; and
The weight of evidence, based on present
knowledge, reinforces the view that internationally Tuvalu is one of the
most vulnerable countries to possible future climate and sea-level change;
The main priorities to enable Tuvalu to plan and implement appropriate
responses to climate and se-level change are:
There is a need to increase the understanding of
coral reef ecosystems , coastal erosion processes, and land at risk from
flooding and inundation in Tuvalu. This requires an integrated approach
which encompasses ongoing research and monitoring, capacity building and
training, developing local expertise and institutional capacity and
integrating traditional and Palagi knowledge;
There is a need for better understanding on
impacts of cyclones and other extremes events on human health and how these
impacts will be altered by changes in frequency and intensity of extreme
events and local sea level rise;
Better regional information is required on future
climate and sea-level change and cumulative and indirect effects of such
changes. This will include developing locally appropriate methodologies for
analysing these effects and increasing the understanding of present
interactions between climate, sea level variation and environmental and
socio-economic effects and changes; and
There is need to develop a national policy
framework which will facilitate implementation of the most appropriated and
effective adaptation strategies and measures. This will need to incorporate
institutional strengthening , participation from communities and developing
in country capacity and expertise in Tuvalu
2. INTRODUCTION
Tuvalu, aware of the present effects of climate variability
and extremes, its potential vulnerability to climate change and the range of
current socio-economic and environmental pressures, has committed itself to
addressing these issues through becoming a signatory to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As a result of this, Tuvalu
is obligated to provide National Communications to the Conference of the
Parties to the UNFCCC.
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has funded the
Pacific Climate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP), implemented by the UNDP
and executed by SPREP and UNITAR, to carry out activities which will enable
Pacific Island Countries (PICs) including Tuvalu to prepare and submit their
National Communications to the INFCCC.
Tuvalu is insignificant producer of green house gases and
consequently can have minimal direct influence on limiting greenhouse
emissions. Nevertheless, even if international initiatives to limit global
greenhouse gas emissions are successful,
Tuvalu will have no choice other than to adapt to the
consequences of climate and sea level change. In order to develop and
implement appropriate response strategies, it is essential that there is a
clear understanding of the effects of, capacity to adapt, and vulnerability to
, climate and sea-level change in Tuvalu.
This report provides a synthesis of the current state of
knowledge about the possible effects of, and vulnerability to, climate and
sea-level change in Tuvalu. The methodology used in this assessment is based
on the IPCC technical guidelines (Carter et al, 1994) for assessing climate
change impacts and adaptation. The information presented in this synthesis
assessment had been drawn from a range of analyses and studies that have been
undertaken in Tuvalu (Aalbersberg and Hay,1992; Sem et al, 1996; Nurse et al,
1998, Mataio and Paelate).
As well as reflecting the current state of knowledge in
Tuvalu, perhaps more importantly this report identifies gaps, needs and
priorities for improving the understanding of vulnerability and adaptation to
climate and sea-level change in Tuvalu.
3 PRESENT CONDITION IN TUVALU
Tuvalu is a small island state consisting of five true
atolls and four raised limestone reef islands, with a total land area of
approximately 26 km2. Land levels are very low, with maximum
heights above mean sea level typically ranging from 3.00-4.00. The climate of
Tuvalu is tropical and marine. The main air temperature is 280C,
with a mean maximum of 250C. The mean rainfall ranges from
2,300-3,700 mm annually. Climate variability and extremes, in particular ENSO
and tropical cyclones, are important features of the Tuvaluan climate. Present
issue in Tuvalu, which are important in the context of future changes in
climate change and sea level include:-
3.1 Coastal erosion and infrastructure development
The increase in population and the growth in demands for
permanent (Palagi) house and infrastructure (in particular the airport runway)
in Funafuti has resulted in an increased demand for sand and gravel for
building and construction purposes. The sourcing of aggregate from coastal
environments, in particular the coastal rampart created by Hurricane Bebe, may
increase the risk of coastal erosion and flooding in the future, This bank has
almost been completely removed on Fogafale. As a result cyclones would have a
greater effect because the protection that the bank provided in gone.
3.2 Housing, land availability and population growth
Housing ownership is becoming less common among Tuvaluans
and the majority won the land as well as the house. Land limitation has become
a problem due to a rapid increase in population, particularly in Funafuti. It
also leads to more degraded terrestrial ecosystems which are likely to be more
vulnerable to changes in climate and the encroaching sea level rise.
3.3 Food and Health 
The
overall population have shifted their food diet from traditional to imported
food. The capital, Funafuti is
depending more on imported food due to population pressure and limitation of
land for subsistence farming. This has led to an increase in the so-called
lifestyle disease.
3.4 Growth of cash economy 
The development of a cash
economy in Tuvalu is increasing the material expectations and aspirations of the
people. Although, subsistence activities and sharing and reciprocity with
extended family and the community are the common features of the Tuvaluan’s
traditional life, people are increasingly participating in the cash economy.
3.5 Pollution from solid and liquid waste 
Poorly controlled waste
disposal is still commonplace throughout Tuvalu. Inadequate disposal management
methods associated with land-use is common on Funafuti. These practises are
contributing to increased health risks and environmental degradation.
3.6 Marine resources
The exploitation of marine
resources is increasing due to population pressure. This is mostly happening in
the capital, Funafuti. The establishment of the Funafuti conservation area has
been a response to this growing pressure on marine resources.
3.7 Water supply 
Water supply is at present
fairly adequate except during dry spells. With increasing population pressure on
Funafuti, it is likely that freshwater supply will become an issue. The
ground-water resources on all the atolls are vulnerable to climate and sea-level
changes.
The well being of people in
Tuvalu depends on a healthy and productive environment. Tuvaluans are presently
well adapted to the limited land resources and variable climate of their atoll
environments. The remainder of this report identifies how Tuvaluans may be
affected by, and be adapted to, the effects of future changes in climate and sea
level rise.
4
SENSITIVE
SECTORS AND EXPOSURE
While the entire country of
Tuvalu is sensitive to both climatic and non-climatic changes and variations,
there are some key sectors and exposure units that likely to be particularly
sensitive to future changes in climate and sea level in association with likely
non-climatic changes.
4.1 Coastal and Marine Systems
Erosion
and accretion are common features on the foreshore of all the islands especially
during tropical cyclones associated with high seas and storm surges. Human
activities through aggregate excavation and de-vegetation of shorelines will
enhance erosion. Flooding and inundation are common in low islands during
storms, particularly those associated with high spring tides.
Coral reefs are highly sensitive to increases in sea-surface temperature
and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
4.2 Subsistence Agriculture
Pulaka and coconut are the most
important food crops for the Tuvalu culture.
Pulaka is mostly affected by salt water intrusion and flooding/inundation
during storms. Long periods of droughts also contribute to dryness of pits,
which may lead to high mortality of pulaka. Although coconut trees are
reasonably resilient to storms and hurricanes they can be severely damaged by
high winds. Severe and prolonged droughts can lead to decreased coconut yield.
4.3 Water Supply and Quality
Rainwater collected into tanks
or cisterns is the main source of water supply on all the islands of Tuvalu,
with the exception of a few islands, which have limited underground resources of
fresh and brackish water. There is a shortage of water storage facilities while
the demands is increasing with population growth. Boiling of drinking water is
widely practised. Water quality is largely influenced by the frequency of roof
cleaning, which is generally inadequate. It
is more difficult to maintain water quality in dry conditions where there is a
greater potential for contamination.
4.4 Human Health and Well-Being
The health and well-being of
the people depends on a healthy, productive environment. Poor water quality
increases the risk of diarrhoeal diseases. The presence of the mosquito which is
capable to transmit dengue fever provides the potential for dengue fever
outbreaks. There were recorded outbreaks of dengue fever in Tuvalu in 1971,1972,
1980, 1989, and 1992 with two imported two case in 1998.
4.5 Housing
Increased urbanisation of
Funafuti as a consequence of population growth, development of the cash economy,
the shift to Palagi houses since cyclone Bebe, and the lack of an adequate
building code have all contributed to increased demand for limited land and
vegetative resources and rainwater. As a consequences housing may be
increasingly sensitive to future changes in climate and sea level, including
extreme events such as cyclones.
5. CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR TUVALU
There
continues to be a lack of regional detail on scenarios of future climate and
sea-level change for Pacific islands countries. What is certain is that the
current state of knowledge
indicates changes in mean conditions, which are likely to be associated with
changes in variability and extremes.
5.1 Climate scenarios
In the absence of regional
detail, the best information available has been used to development scenarios of
climate change for Tuvalu. This drawn from output from a number of general
circulation models (GCM’s) in combination with the most recent IPCC
projections and from historical events such as cyclones and ENSO events.
Two broad scenarios have been
developed based on the IPCC IS92a(the best = scenario 1) and 1S92e
(high=scenario 2) emission scenarios, for the years 2025, 2050 and 2100 in
combination with results from four
GCM’s (refer to Annex A for full details
of the scenarios).
Ø
Both scenarios show an increase in atmospheric
temperature in the Tuvalu region, ranging from 0.5 to 2.20C in 2050 to 0.9 to
4.5 0C in 2100;
Ø
Scenario 1 shows moderate to very high
decreases in rainfall (the UKHI GCM gives a 95% rainfall decrease by 2100, for
the 1S92e (high), while Scenario 2 moderate to high increases in rainfall; and
Ø
Thus scenario 1 gives warmer and drier
conditions, and Scenario 2 givers warmer and wetter conditions;
Apart from the considerations of
changes in mean climate conditions it is important to also consider climate
variability and extremes. Climate models are not yet able to state with any
certainty what changes in variability and extremes may occur. In the absence of
such certainly,
historical events are use to provide
analogues for considering effects of variability and extremes, in association
with mean changes in climate.
Ø
Tropical cyclones appear to have increased in
frequency in Tuvalu. The most recent severe events was cyclone Bebe (in 1972)
which had significant effects in Tuvalu; and
Ø
ENSO events have been experienced with greater frequency over the last
two decades. In Tuvalu, El Nino events bring warmer, wet conditions, whereas La
Nana conditions are cooler and drier.
It must be
emphasised that these scenarios, in particular related to changes in
variability, are highly uncertain and are only used here as a basis for asking
“what if” questions about the effects in Tuvalu of climate change and
variability.
5.2
Sea level scenarios
Global climate models are note yet
able to project changes in sea level at a regional scale of direct relevance to
Tuvalu. However, scenarios of global sea-level changes for the year 2025, 2050
and 2100 have been derived form the IPCC emission scenarios,IS92a and IS92e.
6.2 Population distribution
Population on Funafuti is presently
growing at a faster rate than on the outer islands. However, because of current
concern about this population growth in Funafuti the government has development
a decentralisation strategy to encourage redistribution of the population, in
particular to Vaitupu (the largest island by land area ). This there are two
possible scenarios for population distribution:
1)
continued central migration and growth in Funafuti
2)
redistribution of population between Funafuti and Vaitupu
6.3 Economy
At present there is a strong
traditional subsistence economy, a high dependence on foreign aid and a growing
cash economy. In the future it is likely that the traditional informal way of
life would be maintained, the dependence on foreign aid will continue, with
relatively limited potential for development of the cash economy (due to the
limited resource base).
6.4
Change in food preference
Over the last twenty years there has
been a significant shift from the traditional diet of locally sourced foods
towards a grater consumption of imported foods (in particular rice and canned
food). Some families are now completely dependent on imported food, with the
exception of fish, coconut and pulaka, which continue to be important to the
local diet. The trend towards
imported foods is likely to continue in the future.
6.5
Waste and Pollution
With increased population growth,
limited land area, economic changes (and accompanying increases in importation
of material goods such as motorbikes), and changes in food preferences there are
growing waste and pollution problems in Tuvalu, particularly in Funafuti. The
department for the Environment is currently working with the South Pacific
Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and other regional agencies to address
these problems. Two possible scenarios for future waste and pollution are
proposed:
1)
the present situation of partly controlled solid waste management is
likely to continue.
2)
a fully controlled waste management plan aimed at zero wasted is in
introduced.
7. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL
7.1 Coastal and Marine Systems
Given its low elevation it is likely that Tuvalu will be at
high risk from any increases in sea level. Changes in sea level and sea surface
temperature will also affect marine ecosystems such as the coral reef
ecosystems.
7.2 Inundation and flooding
Any increase in mean sea level (msl) will have significant
impacts on Tuvalu . By 2050 an increase in mean sea level of 0.3 to 05m
(comparable to the 0.2 to0,4 m range given by the IPCC, IS92a scenario) does not
show any inundation of Funafuti, but the ground water level is raised (by a 0.5
m increase) to the level of the runway and other low-lying areas. A sea level
rise of 1 m (corresponding to the IPCC, IS92e high scenario for 2100) would
result in permanent inundation of a significant land area in Tuvalu, including
the runway on Funafuti.
The risk of overtopping increases significantly in all areas,
even with a sea-level rise of 0.3 m. In addition, the return interval at which
the run up height equals the land level becomes increasingly shorter as sea
level rises. The risk of damage from cyclone events will increase significantly.
For example, the return interval of a 1 in 50 year event will be reduced to 1in
25 with a 0.5m rise in sea level and be reduced to approximately 1 in 12 with a
1.0m rise. With no absolute change in cyclone frequency and intensity , even
cyclones that have historically been of low severity will increasingly have
greater impact.
7.3 Erosions
Based on the above scenarios and their effects the risk of
coastal erosion will increase significantly, particularly with a relative
increase in the frequency intensity and severity of cyclone events. A better
understanding of coastal erosion processes, the human activities which may
exacerbate the problem, and identification of areas of high risk from erosion
around Tuvalu and the possible significance of sea-level rise is required.
7.4 Coral Reefs
Present sea surface temperature in Tuvalu is 290C,
with a seasonal variation of +/-0.50C. This is at the upper limit of
the tolerance range for most coral species (250C to 290C).
Given that problems of coral bleaching are already widespread in the Pacific and
that coral reefs in Tuvalu are already at the limits of their temperature
tolerance, it seems likely that any increase in sea surface temperature would
have significant effect on their viability, and species diversity and vertical
distribution.
Average reef growth rates have been estimated at 5-8 mm/yr(in
Kiribati)….insert reference… which are comparable to the range of
uncertainty in global sea-level rise(2.9 mm/yr) Thus it is probable that coral
reefs could keep up with sea-level rise. However,, it is unknown how present
reef ecosystems in Tuvalu would cope with the combined effects of sea level,-sea
surface temperature, and CO2 increase.
7.5 Subsistence agriculture
If climatic conditions in Tuvalu become warmer and
drier(scenario 1), there will be significant yield reductions for pulaka, and
lowered coconut yields. If conditions become warmer and wetter (Scenario 2),
there may be beneficial effects on pulaka, coconut and other subsistence crops.
Because pulaka pits are dug to the fresh-water table, even a small rise in sea
level will increase the risk of slat-water intrusion, and flooding, and this
reduce yields. Any loss of land due to inundation and flooding, and erosion,
will have a significant impact on agricultural productivity. Even with no change
in variability , a shift to drier average conditions will lead to more frequent
dry periods and this ore frequent yield reductions. Likewise, arise in mean sea
level will shorten the return period for damaging cyclone events.
7.6 Water supply and quality
The effects of climate change on water quantity is uncertain.
Under conditions of Scenario 1, which described a decrease in average rainfall,
there will be significant shortages of water supply. It is possible that changes
in variability will exacerbate water shortages and result in longer and more
serious water shortages. Conversely, the effect of climate change as descried by
Scenario 2 will be an increase in average rainfall and therefore available water
supply. Sat water intrusion and over topping associated with sea level rise and
storm events will decrease the quantity and quality of the limited ground water
resources. Low rainfall conditions and increase in temperature may have an
adverse effect on microbiological quality of water.
7.7 Human health and well-being
Favourable climatic conditions for dengue and the mosquito
vector already exist in Tuvalu. Under warmer conditions the biting rate of the
mosquito will increase and extrinsic incubation period(EIP) will decrease and
there will be an overall increase in epidemic potential.. insert reference..
this means that epidemic outbreak will spread faster, be of greater magnitude
and be sustained by a smaller vector population. The increased risk of dengue
fever will be exacerbated by increased breeding sites associated with higher
rainfall conditions and a raised water table. Regional changes in dengue fever
prevalence is likely to result in a increased frequency of virus introduction
into Tuvalu. It is not yet possible to quantify this change in dengue fever
risk. Other effect of climate change will include the possible increase in
diarrheal diseases, increase in human discomfort and heat stress and possible
indirect effect of storm events on health and health services.
7.8 Housing
Palagi houses are less well ventilated than traditional
houses. In addition the iron roofs of Palagi houses, while important for
gathering rainwater, also make the house environment hotter than with the
traditional thatched roof. Thus the warmer conditions will reduce human comfort
in Tuvalu houses. This could increase the need for air-conditioning, which is
presently too expensive. The shift to Palagi houses occurred after Hurricane
Bebe, when the only building left standing were the concrete structures. Because
there is no official building it not known exactly what the effect would be of
another cyclone of the magnitude of Hurricane Bebe. However, any significant
damage to concrete structures would create a strong pressure on the very limited
aggregate.
8. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS
Tuvalu life and culture are integrally related to the land,
oceanic, and atmospheric environment. While studies to-date provide some
indication of the likely direct, and possible indirect, effects of climate and
sea-level change on particular aspects of Tuvalu, the overall impacts will, in
reality, be cumulative and determined by the interaction and synergism between
these effects and on-going environmental and socio-economic changes.
Some of the important effects in Tuvalu and their
interactions are identified in the accompanying diagram. It does not attempt to
provide a definitive description of the interactions and cumulative effects, but
it does provide and indication of some of the most important
inter-relationships. The most important aspect of this diagram is that it
highlights the very strong inter-linkages between all aspects of human and
natural systems that exist in Tuvalu , and that no effects can be considered in
complete isolation.
There is a clear need for better information aimed at
providing a more integrated understanding of effects. It is important that
integrated assessment methodologies are developed which are appropriate to the
unique, and highly integrated, biophysical , social and economic environment of
Tuvalu.
9. ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
9.1 Adaptations
It is important that adaptation measures and strategies in
Tuvalu take a ‘ no regrets’ approach. These are options which increase the
ability of ecosystems and communities to cope with present and ongoing
environmental stresses and climate variability. No regrets measures are
beneficial to society and the environment even in the absence of climate change
and sea level rise.
9.1.1 Sectoral Adaptation Measures
A range of sectoral adaptation measures have been
qualitatively assessed, based on economic and environmental cost, cultural
suitability and practicability( see Annex B for details). Each of the measures
is discussed below.
a) Coastal and marine systems
Coastal protection structures are a direct measure to
protect coastal areas. Existing coastal protection structures in Funafuti have
been proved to inadequate even for present wave conditions. At present only
selected areas are protected. The effectiveness of existing protective
structures could be improved in the most sensitive areas. However, the
financial, aesthetic and environmental cost, and likely ineffectiveness of
protecting the entire coastline of Tuvalu by such structures is likely to make
this a non-viable option based on the sea-level rise scenarios presented in this
report;
Measures to protect existing foreshore vegetation and
encourage revegetation would decrease the risk of erosion, particularly from
storm events. Similarly, measures to control aggregate removal would also reduce
the erosion risk;
Protection of the marine environment in Funafuti has
been enhanced by the establishment of conservation area. This is designed to
protect both fisheries and reef ecosystems. Such conservation measures, and
other measures to reduce the impact of human activities in marine environments,
need to be encouraged throughout Tuvalu;
b) Subsistence agriculture
Breeding of salt-tolerant pulaka varieties could be
encouraged, particularly given the cultural significance of pulaka.
Alternatively, different cultivation practices (such as development of
irrigated, raised-bed system) could be evaluated;
Measures to protect ground-water resources, to limit the potential for
salt-water intrusion, should be evaluated; and
A shift to completed dependence on imported food would
be an extreme measure, that would involve considerable cost, both financially
and culturally and in terms of human health;
c) Water supply and quality
Development and increase of water catchment and water
storage facilities, which would increase the ability of communities to cope with
extended drought periods should be encouraged. In Fogafale for example, an
extreme measure would include developing the runway as a water catchment
surface;
The limited ground water resources , which do exist on
outer islands, should further investigated and where appropriate measures
implemented for their protection and enhancement;
The development of a desalination facility may be a
valuable supplementary water source, especially during times of drought.
However, the high costs of desalination may be reduced this as an adaptation
option;
d) Health and well-being
Reduction of container breeding sites, such as those
provided by normal waste dumps, open water tanks and discarded container
articles such as cans and tyres, would decrease the risk of dengue fever
outbreaks;
Measures to prevent exposure to mosquitoes, such as the use of
mosquito bed-nets and mosquito screens may become necessary;
Quarantine measures to reduce the risk of introduction
of the dengue virus and the vector mosquito should be maintained and improved;
e) Housing
Measures to ‘cyclone-proof’ houses would
decrease the impacts and costs associated with cyclone events. This would
include consideration given to structural design and materials used in
construction; and
The reduction of heat stress and discomfort may be
achieved by the panting of shade tees and designing with better insulation
and ventilation. Air-conditioning is likely to be too expensive for
Tuvaluans.
9.2 ADAPTATION RESPONSE STRATEGIES
National strategies need to be developed which facilitate
comprehensive evaluation of adaptation measures and implementation of those
which are most cost-effective and culturally and environmentally appropriate.
9.2.1 Development planning
All development planning and environmental management in
Tuvalu should take into account the effects of climate and sea-level change on
development and the effects of development on sensitive environments and
resources. This may be achieved through the development of a national policy
framework, which will allow effective implementation of adaptation. This may
include the development of planning tools such as EIA, legislation and
regulations such as building codes as well as improved disaster preparedness and
management.
9.2.2 Capacity building and institution strengthening
A process has already been implemented to develop in-country
capacity and strengthen institutions through the Pacific Islands Climate Change
Assistance Programme (PICCAP). It is vital that this receives ongoing support.
9.2.3 Public awareness and education
Implementation of adaptation options and measures will not be effective
without public support and participation in the process.
9.2.4 Migration
A very real possibility for Tuvalu if sea level rises as
projected by the higher scenarios, is that out-migration will become a lst-resort
adaptation option.
10. VULNERABILITY OF TUVALU TO CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL CHANGE
It is difficult to make a definitive statement about
vulnerability of Tuvalu to climate and sea-level change, for three reasons. One,
there is continued uncertainty about projections of climate and sea-level
change. Two, there are significant gaps in knowledge about effects of climate
and sea level change, particularly indirect and cumulative effects. There, there
needs to be a comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of the proposed
adaptation options and their social and environmental cost. It is however,
possible to provide some qualitative statements on the vulnerability of Tuvalu.
The least cost(economic, social and environmental) options
for adaptation to climate change relate to activities that are either on-going
or likely to be easily implemented with local resources. The highest cost
options are those that would not be identified as no-regrets strategies (eg
seawalls) and relate to most severe effects, and greatest vulnerabilities.
Tuvaluans have proven to be highly adapted to their
environment, and to be adaptable to changing socio-economic conditions and
climatic extremes. While no-regrets strategies would be effective and feasible
to implement, it is likely that the effects of inundation and flooding caused by
possible future sea-level rise would overshadow all other anticipated effects
from climate and sea-le el change and leave increasingly less scope for
effective adaptation across all sectors.
In this sense, the weight of evidence based on present
knowledge, reinforces the view that Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable
countries to possible future climate and se-level change.
11. CONCLUSION: IDENTIFYING GAPS AND PRIORITISING NEEDS
11. 1 Information and Knowledge Gaps
Studies in Tuvalu have been constrained by gaps in knowledge
and information related to the following issues:
Status and health of coral reef ecosystems and their sensitivity
to climatic and non-climatic stresses;
Detail on land elevation and land at risk from
flooding and inundation;
Understanding of erosion processes, sediment
transport dynamics in Tuvalu and areas at risk from erosion;
Information on subsistence crops (eg pulaka and
coconut) and their climatic requirements;
Information on climate related diseases such as
dengue fever and diarrhoea;
Information on the possible risk of damage from cyclones to
housing and infrastructure (due to lack of building code and standards);
Detail of future climate and sea-level change in Tuvalu;
Detail of future climate variability and extremes
in Tuvalu;
Understanding of the present cross-sectoral
interactions and the possible effect of climate and sea level;
Information and knowledge on the cost,
environmental and social consequences, practicability, and effectiveness of
all adaptation opportunities, including specific measures and policy
strategies;
More understanding of the importance of sustaining
the in-country capacity and expertise, and institutional strengthening
requirements.
12. PRIORITIES
Priority needs to allow Tuvalu to plan and implement
appropriate effective responses to climate and sea-level change have been
identified and are summarised below:
There is need to increase the understanding of
coral reefs ecosystems, coastal erosion processes, and land at risk from
flooding and inundation in Tuvalu. This require an integrated approach which
encompasses ongoing research and monitoring, capacity building and training,
developing local expertise and institutional capacity and nitrating
traditional and western knowledge;
There is a need for better understanding of
impacts of cyclones and other extremes evens on subsistence crops,
infrastructure (housing, communication, essential services and roading), and
human health and how these impacts will be altered b changes in frequency
and intensity of extreme events and local sea level rise; and
There is a need to develop a national policy
framework which will facilitate implementation of the most appropriated and
effective adaptation strategies and measures. This will need to incorporate
institutional strengthening, participation from communities a d developing
in-country capacity and expertise in Tuvalu.
13. REFERENCES
Aalbersberg, B and Hay,J. 1992. Implications of Climate
Change and Sea level Rise for Tuvalu. SPREP Reports and Studies Series No. 54.
Carter,T.R., Parry, M. L,. Harasawa, H., Nishioka, S. 1994.
IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, University College London, UK and
Centre for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental
Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, 59pp.
Tekinene, M. and Paelate, A. 1998 . Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment of Climate and Sea-Level Change In Tuvalu. National Policy
Makers Statement.
Nurse, L., A,. McLean, R.F,. A. G. 1998. Small Island
States.. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability.
A Special Report to IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press.pp331-354.
